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Poker cards on the table

Five Rules for Picking Your Bracket
If you’re like 99% of the adult population in America
you’re working on your NCAA bracket this week (due by Noon ET on Thursday). And if you get it just right
there might even be some money in it for you. Here are five rules for picking your bracket that will give you an advantage over anyone who hasn’t read this: Number 1: Don’t trust the SEC. Only three SEC teams made the Big Dance this year and only two of them were even worthy (Miss. St. won the SEC tourney to “earn” an automatic bid). Expect all three SEC teams to go out in the first round. MSU is terrible and lost to just about every out of conference opponent they faced. Tennessee has a nice out of conference win against Marquette
but that’s it. They lost to Gonzaga twice
Temple
Kansas and Memphis. In conference
UT struggled against the “better” teams like Kentucky
LSU and Auburn. And LSU’s out of conference schedule was a joke. The “big” win was against a mediocre Wash. St. team. They lost to Texas A&M
Utah and Xavier. Pathetic. The SEC is terrible. I wish there was a stronger way to state this. Number 2: Trust the Big East They’ve been the strongest conference in college basketball all year long. There’s a reason 9 Big East teams were ranked going into the conference schedule. It’s because the Big East generally beat up on other conferences. Georgetown and Notre Dame were top 10 teams before they started facing other Big East teams. Here’s a look at some Big East out of conference wins: Pittsburgh: Florida St.
Siena UCONN: Wisconsin
Gonzaga
Michigan Syracuse: Memphis
Kansas
Florida The Big East team I actually worry about is Louisville. Perhaps they figured out how to flip a switch because they were pretty bad early in the season with losses to Western Kentucky
Minnesota and UNLV. They’re hot now
though
so it’s hard to bet against them. Number 3: The Hilltoppers are ready for an upset They’ve already gotten a signature win over Louisville this year and have also tested themselves against teams like Georgia
Florida St. and Mississippi St. They won’t be intimidated by Illinois. And the Illini will likely be without their best perimeter defender which is good news for guard-heavy Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers three guards all average more than 12 ppg and hit more than 36% of their 3-point shots. Illinois’ only chance is to slow down the game and use their 7-footer. It won’t work. Number 4: Utah will not be upset by Arizona Listen to the oddsmakers and a Wildcats win in this game wouldn’t actually be an upset. For the life of me
I can’t figure out why anyone would expect the Wildcats to win. They are far and away the worst at large team in the Big Dance. It took a win over a terrible Stanford team to close the regular season just to get to .500 in a relatively weak Pac 10. They were 11-8 on Jan. 21st and closed the season losing 5 out of 6. A seven game winning streak over mostly mediocre teams saved their season. The Utes’ Luke Nevill will neutralize the Wildcats’ best weapon
Jordan Hill. And Arizona will go home. Number 5: The four #1 seeds won’t make the Final Four
but they’ll all be close It’s a lock. All four #1 seeds will make the Elite Eight. The bumps they’ll encounter aren’t nearly big enough to stop them. The only possible upset is Wake over Louisville. Other than that
it’s a cakewalk. The Final Four is a different story
however. Louisville faces a tough matchup with Michigan St. (the only legitimate Big 10 threat in the tourney). Pitt faces a tough matchup with Duke or even Nova
who beat Pitt by 10 in the regular season. UConn will be the most popular pick to fail because they have a run-in with Memphis planned. And I wouldn’t want to be UNC looking at a matchup with Player of the Year Blake Griffin and Oklahoma or maybe even a strong Syracuse squad. If you’r
e looking for a repeat of last year’s chalk
you’ll be disappointed. I can’t tell you which #1 (or #1s) will fail to get there (after all
I’m facing some of you in bracket challenges)
but I can tell you the chalk ain’t happening!

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